Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.642247 21.367216 23.273866 25.557698 28.246457 31.347200 35.248008
2024-10-20 16.802008 19.009230 21.625125 25.022103 29.426548 35.117241 43.353498
2024-10-27 15.563344 18.184782 21.480134 26.080814 32.626197 42.153961 58.416705
2024-11-03 14.198375 16.954440 20.562663 25.870913 33.980905 47.016931 72.981821
2024-11-10 13.240972 16.099769 19.973437 25.940434 35.676998 52.944519 93.806237
2024-11-17 12.507178 15.443574 19.542428 26.121010 37.536625 59.880102 124.301504
2024-11-24 11.884511 14.866366 19.135619 26.239366 39.280988 67.402959 169.047132
2024-12-01 11.257963 14.221192 18.546673 25.949652 40.175534 73.527614 225.286456
2024-12-08 10.785432 13.755938 18.176009 25.959716 41.649119 82.024866 333.037406
2024-12-15 10.317244 13.259436 17.704974 25.717422 42.529208 89.553427 506.958859
2024-12-22 9.893052 12.798471 17.247521 25.433071 43.247578 97.251782 859.342263
2024-12-29 9.524788 12.398017 16.853232 25.212157 44.064556 106.173837 1942.755362
2025-01-05 9.191734 12.037095 16.504174 25.051815 45.051837 117.238640 17033.289034
2025-01-12 8.810596 11.581728 15.966343 24.461828 44.820654 123.056490 NaN
2025-01-19 8.726728 11.584989 16.200830 25.447427 49.111299 158.906065 NaN
2025-01-26 8.456090 11.276638 15.874890 25.232147 49.959906 177.034154 NaN
2025-02-02 8.248072 11.057672 15.689371 25.292833 51.685852 207.084741 NaN
2025-02-09 8.070825 10.879000 15.561825 25.463278 53.848053 250.595057 NaN
2025-02-16 7.897357 10.697640 15.416359 25.575533 55.889914 306.251974 NaN
2025-02-23 7.683070 10.439508 15.115014 25.297553 56.485721 349.108870 NaN
2025-03-02 7.519530 10.258521 14.944696 25.306994 58.187500 432.736349 NaN
2025-03-09 7.335454 10.035793 14.684082 25.074765 58.905508 511.589033 NaN
2025-03-16 7.156976 9.815869 14.417307 24.802209 59.404922 604.189779 NaN